Trump’s victory sets the stage for high-stakes Virginia elections in 2025

Former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House following the Nov. 5 election is already sending ripples through Virginia politics and setting the stage for an intense 2025 election cycle in the commonwealth. With control of the governorship and the House of Delegates on the line, both parties are strategizing to leverage the shifting political landscape to their advantage.

“I think we’re in a crucial moment in Virginia’s history, this is a moment where every single vote, every election and every voice can make a lasting difference, especially after the election of Donald Trump,” Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, said on a video call with reporters on Friday.

The 2017 elections in Virginia offer a compelling precedent. That year — Trump’s first in office —  galvanized the Democratic base, leading to a stunning 15-seat gain in the House and leaving the Republicans with a razor-thin 50–49 advantage. 

Suburban districts that had long been Republican strongholds, including in the Richmond area and in Northern Virginia, flipped blue as many moderate voters reacted against the president’s divisive rhetoric and policies. 

Additionally, Democrat Ralph Northam’s decisive victory in the gubernatorial race — he defeated Republican Ed Gillespie by a 9-point margin (54-45%) — underscored the state’s shift toward progressive politics, fueled by high turnout among women, young voters, and minorities united by their dislike for an incumbent president whom Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, had defeated in the commonwealth with 49.75-44.43%. 

Two years later, in 2019, Democrats picked up six more seats in the House, marking the first time that the party held control of both legislative and executive branches in Virginia since 1993.

Following Trump’s recent win, Virginia Democrats are hoping for a similar wave in 2025, betting that the Republican’s polarizing presidency will once again energize their coalition. With abortion rights, climate policy, and education likely to be central issues, Democrats believe they can maintain their control of the legislature and win back the Executive Mansion by appealing to suburban and urban voters alarmed by Trump’s policies.

“One of the things about Virginia is that you can never really predict what will happen, because Virginia voters are so in tune and aware of what’s going on. They don’t go for a lot of BS, which is why Virginia rejected Donald Trump three times,” Scott said, referring also to the presidential elections in 2020 and 2024, which Trump lost in the commonwealth. 

Virginians, Scott said, pay “very close attention to what happens in DC right now,” and they will take note if Trump keeps his promise to abolish the U.S. Department of Education or eliminate federal jobs in Northern Virginia — actions that could fire up the Democratic party’s base.

Republicans, on the other hand, are hoping for a reverse dynamic. 

Trump’s successful third White House bid has emboldened Virginia conservatives, particularly in rural areas where his support remains robust, and the GOP campaigns of next year are likely to focus on economic issues and a law-and-order message to woo suburban voters who have drifted toward Democrats in recent cycles.

“The Republican Party of Virginia and Trump very handily carried a number of Virginia House of Delegates districts that either Republicans lost by a small amount last year or won by a small amount,” Rich Anderson, the chairman of the Virginia GOP, said in a recent phone interview. 

“So it’s going to be vital for us next year to take those Republicans who showed up for President Trump and to get them out in the 2025 election cycle. We will work hard in doing that because next year is a crucial year for us in the House of Delegates elections, and the Democrats only have a one seat margin. If we work hard, then we can flip it back, and that, of course, helps our nominees for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.”

David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, said that the current Democratic majorities in the House of Delegates (51-49) and the state Senate (21-19) are too close for either party to relax. 

“If Virginia acts like 2021, where it voted against the party in power in Washington, then the GOP will have an uphill climb,” Richards said. “The question is how far along Trump’s agenda will be by the fall of 2025. If things are going well, the GOP could draft on that success, but if things are chaotic, then that will be a problem.”

Deputy House Minority Leader Israel O’Quinn, R-Washington, said that Republicans plan to seize on a lagging enthusiasm among Democratic voters this year in order to flip the House in 2025. 

“These races are going on a race-by-race and a candidate-by-candidate basis, that’s why you have to put the work into the recruitment of quality candidates and make sure that you’re competitive in these really tight 50-50 House districts,” O’Quinn said. 

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won 60 out of 100 House of Delegates seats, and in the following year Democrats were able to capitalize on 51 of those, O’Quinn added. “I think Kamala Harris won 59 this year, so they’re going to have to run the table on all 51 to be able to continue to hold on to the majority, and I think we’re going to be very competitive there.” 

And less than one year before Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial election and more than six months before the party primaries, the contest is effectively set, with two high-profile candidates leading the major-party tickets. 

On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Prince William, was the first to announce her bid in November of last year, positioning herself as a centrist with a focus on pragmatic leadership. Outgoing Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, followed suit one month later, but in April he opted to pursue the lieutenant governor’s seat instead, streamlining Spanberger’s path to the nomination.

For Republicans, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears emerged as the party’s standard-bearer after Attorney General Jason Miyares declared on Monday he would seek reelection rather than enter the governor’s race. Earle-Sears, who launched her campaign in September, is set to carry the GOP banner unopposed, benefiting from Miyares’ decision to focus on being reelected into his current role.

But despite her re-embrace of Trump as the Republican presidential nominee, the lieutenant governor’s campaign may still be haunted by her remarks from November 2022, when she publicly urged Americans to move on from the former president.

“A true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage. And the voters have given us that very clear message,” Earle-Sears said in a TV interview at the time.

Richards, the political science professor, said that he expects the damning remarks to be brought up by political action committees aligned with Spanberger during the gubernatorial election cycle as a way to undermine Earle-Sears with Republicans.  

“She will need to make up quickly with Trump. Had Trump lost she would have been able to brush off her previous comments, but now she will need his support,” Richards said. 

“I suspect she will try to make nice. Her bigger hurdle will be convincing independent voters in Virginia she is not too extreme. Virginia is a purple state, and when it votes for the GOP it likes moderate-facing candidates, which is why Youngkin was careful to present himself that way in 2021.” 

A spokesman for Earle-Sears’ campaign declined to provide comment for this story. 

There is little doubt that the match-up between Spanberger and Earle-Sears promises to be a defining battle of contrasting visions for Virginia’s future. Spanberger’s track record as a moderate in Congress and Earle-Sears’ bold embrace of conservative policies ensure the race will draw national attention.

Spanberger’s “2025 campaign will continue to be laser-focused on the priorities that all Virginians share — stronger schools, safer communities, and lower costs,” campaign spokesman Connor Joseph said “And following the election of former President Trump, she also knows that Virginia must have a governor who is committed to protecting the rights and fundamental freedoms of all Virginians.”

Ernest McGowen, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science at the University of Richmond, said that Earle-Sears will likely face an uphill battle in a state that has increasingly voted for Democrats in statewide elections. 

“Earle-Sears may be a little too far right. If you look at Tim Kane and the kind of people that he had to run against, I think it may be kind of a similar situation,” McGowen said, referring to the Democratic U.S. senator from Virginia who has won his two reelection bids by fending of challenges from Republican nominees whose far-right positions have helped their primary campaigns but hurt their chances of winning a general election. 

“Also, Spanberger is more of a known commodity,” McGowen said. “If the Democrats in their election postmortem decide that their current ideological median isn’t isn’t where they thought it should be, I could see them actually really get behind Spanberger as not the new face of the party, but as someone to show the diversity of thought in the party.”

The 2025 race for Virginia’s attorney general is also starting to take form, with three candidates having officially declared their bids. 

After securing Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s endorsement just moments after his announcement Monday, Miyares is unlikely to face a challenger for his party’s nomination. If reelected, the incumbent has vowed to focus on public safety and his record combating fentanyl and violent crime during a second term.

For Democrats, the field features a competitive primary between former Del. Jay Jones, who previously ran in 2021, and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor. Jones has criticized Miyares for what he calls a “partisan agenda,” while Taylor has emphasized her decades of experience as a prosecutor dedicated to justice and public safety.

The lieutenant governor’s contest, however, remains wide open almost one year out. 

James City County business consultant and U.S. Navy veteran John Curran — who ran unsuccessfully for the Board of Supervisors in 2023 — is the only Republican who has filed his paperwork to date, but the Democratic field is more crowded. 

Besides Stoney, three additional candidates are vying for their party’s nomination: state Sens. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Chesterfield, and Aaron Rouse, D-Virginia Beach; and Babur Lateef, the former chairman of the Prince William County School Board. 

But officials from both parties agree on one thing — the 2025 elections will likely serve as a referendum on Trump’s second term and provide a key barometer for the 2026 midterms and beyond.

“It goes without saying that the Democrats will definitely be energized, because they have an intense dislike for President Trump,” said Anderson, the RPV chair. “The challenge for Republicans next year is being smarter and better equipped in 2025 than maybe we were in 2017, when we lost all those seats in the House of Delegates.”

And House Speaker Scott expressed confidence in his party’s ability to harness its base’s enthusiasm and channel it into meaningful action.

“We will stand up and we will fight, and I think the majority of Virginians will stand with us and push back against this administration,” Scott said. “I think that next year’s election will be that type of referendum on Donald Trump’s administration.” 

This article first appeared on Virginia Mercury and is republished here with permission. Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence.