Report: Henrico among 50 US counties at lowest risk from pandemic fallout

Henrico County is among 50 counties in the United States deemed to be least vulnerable to pandemic-related problems, according to a report from ATTOM, which curates a database of properties nationally.

The report found that 33 of those 50 counties were located in the South and Midwest, while 20 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to pandemic-related issues are located in metropolitan areas near New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia and Delaware.

The report, which analyzed 570 U.S. counties, came from ATTOM’s analysis of housing market data from the third quarter of the year (July-September).

Markets were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values and the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced houses or condominiums. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM.

The third-quarter trends, which generally continued second-quarter patterns, revealed that New Jersey, Delaware and Illinois had 26 of the 50 counties most exposed to the potential housing-related impacts of the pandemic. They included eight counties in the Chicago metropolitan area, six near New York City, along with two of Delaware's three counties. Three counties in the Philadelphia suburbs also made the top-50 list.

Elsewhere, the rest of the 50 most vulnerable counties were scattered mainly along the East Coast states. Among them, only Florida had more than three counties in the top 50.

Just two western counties, both in California, made it into the top 50 during the third quarter of this year, while the West again had the highest concentration of markets considered least vulnerable to pandemic-related damage.

"There's growing reason to think the Coronavirus pandemic may finally be heading into the history books as case numbers have dropped significantly in the past month or so. But it still poses a significant threat to the economy, with some housing markets in pockets of the country remaining at higher risk than others," said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM. "It's important to stress that this doesn't mean that any one area faces imminent danger, especially given how well the housing market has avoided major problems during the pandemic. Rather, some are more at risk than others.”

Oregon had six of the 50 least at-risk counties, including two in the Portland metropolitan area (Multnomah and Washington counties) and Texas had five, including two in the Austin area (Travis and Williamson counties). Also on the list of least vulnerable counties were Clay, Jackson and Johnson counties in the Kansas City, Missouri, area; Arapahoe and Denver counties in the Denver, Colorado metro area; Dakota and Hennepin counties in the Minneapolis, Minnesota area; and Davidson and Rutherford counties in the Nashville, Tennessee area. Others among the top-50 least at-risk counties with a population of 500,000 or more included Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; Dallas County, Texas; Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), North Carolina; Wake County (Raleigh), North Carolina; and Erie County (Buffalo), New York.