Average number of new daily COVID cases in Henrico has nearly doubled in two weeks

The average number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Henrico County during a moving 7-day window of time has nearly doubled in two weeks, from about 16 per day Oct. 3 to just more than 30 per day Oct. 17, according to Virginia Department of Health data.

Since the pandemic began, that number has peaked twice at 53 new cases per day – once on June 3 and then again July 30.

After the first peak, the number dropped dramatically for about a month, reaching a low of 12.29 new cases per day July 3, but then climbed dramatically again in less than a month – back to 53 per day July 30.

A similar trend appears to be taking place again, though this time it’s been more gradual. The number of new cases per day had fallen or remained relatively steady (with just two minor upticks) during the two-month period from July 30 to Oct. 3. Since then, it’s climbed rapidly again.

The last time the average number of new daily cases moved upward from such a low starting point this rapidly – from 12 per day July 3 to 34 per day July 16 – it then fell for about a week before spiking from 23 cases per day July 22 to 53 per day July 30.

Whether a similar pattern emerges in the coming weeks remains to be seen.

On Oct. 15, Henrico reported its most cases in a single day (49) since 53 were reported Sept. 10. In the two days since, it reported 30 cases Friday and 27 Saturday.

The county’s positivity percentage, which intentionally lags several days behind the current date to allow for more complete reporting of test results, has remained relatively steady for the past month below 4%. It measured 3.5% as of Oct. 13, but likely will begin increasing to reflect the rise in recent cases.

Henrico reported four new hospitalizations Oct. 17 associated with the virus.