New COVID-19 school metrics data from VDH shows encouraging signs for Henrico
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A new Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard designed to provide guidance by locality for school systems in the state, as many consider some form of in-person learning, shows mostly encouraging news about the risk of transmission in Henrico County.
The VDH established a “School Metrics” tab that shows the number of new cases per 100,000 people in the past 14 days; the 14-day positivity percentage by locality; the percent change in new cases per 100,00 during the past 7 days compared to the previous seven days; the percentage of hospital inpatient beds in the region that are occupied; and the percentage of such beds that are occupied by COVID patients.
Henrico’s number of new cases per 100,000 people during the past 14 days – 116.6 – places it in the “higher risk” category, which is the fourth on a five-tiered scale (“higher risk” being the fifth).
But the county’s 14-day positivity percentage of 3.4 is considered “lower risk” (second on the five-tiered scale), while its -30.8% change in new cases per 100,000 people during the most recent seven days on record is considered the “lowest risk” (the first tier on the scale).
Just 3.8% of hospital inpatient beds in the region are filled by COVID patients, according to the VDH – another “lowest risk” data point. Overall, 87.2% of such beds in the region are filled, which is a “moderate risk” (the third tier).
The VDH considers total cases per 100,000 people, 14-day positivity percentage and the ability of a school district to implement five key mitigation strategies – consistent and correct use of masks; social distancing; hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette; cleaning and disinfection; and contact tracing in collaboration with the local health department – the three sets of core indicators.
The other metrics are considered secondary indicators.
Henrico’s numbers across the board essentially are equal to, or more encouraging than, those of Chesterfield, Hanover and Richmond. Henrico has the lowest rate of cases per 100,000 people in the past 14 days of the four localities; Hanover – the largest local school district currently offering full-time in-person learning – is the highest at 161.3.
Henrico Schools officials have been analyzing data from the VDH as they consider their plans for the second nine weeks of school and whether those could involve a return to some form of in-person learning. The school system’s health committee has used the VDH’s “burden” scale as part of that process; it takes into account various data about the virus to suggest the level of transmission risk.
During each of the three health committee updates – including one last week – the Central region (a wide-ranging geographic area that includes Henrico as well as other localities as far south as the North Carolina border) has been at the very bottom of the “high” range.
But as of Sept. 28, it has improved to the “moderate” range of 15.7 (the high range begins at 16 on a 24-point scale). Five of the eight metrics used to determine that score are now considered to be “decreasing,” while one already was at its lowest possible level. Two other metrics are considered to be “fluctuating.”
“VDH recommends local government and school officials work with local health districts to evaluate epidemiologic and other data to assess the extent of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) transmission within their region, its effect on the Commonwealth, and the ability of the healthcare system to function,” VDH officials wrote on their website. “These data should then be interpreted within the context of the local jurisdiction. VDH recommends that decisions to alter K-12 school programming, including decisions about in-person instruction, school dismissals or closures be handled at the most local level possible, considering both regional and local epidemiology, community characteristics, and local capacity.”
To date, Henrico has witnessed one COVID-19 outbreak (defined as two or more related cases) at a child care facility; one outbreak at a college or university; and one outbreak in a K-12 setting, according to the VDH.
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