Henrico would lose one seat in Va. House, gain one in Va. Senate under proposed maps
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Henrico County would be represented in the Virginia House of Delegates by only five delegates instead of six but would gain a third Virginia Senate member if the Virginia Supreme Court ultimately adopts the new district maps proposed by its two special masters Dec. 8.
The new proposals would move all of the six House districts that currently include portions of Henrico out of the county and replace them with five others – 57, 58, 59, 80 and 81.
They also would shift the two current Senate districts that include Henrico (9 and 12) elsewhere and replace them with three others (13, 14 and 16).
Four of the eight newly shaped districts involving Henrico – the 57th, 59 and 81st in the House and the 13th in the Senate – would have no incumbent, if adopted.
The Virginia Supreme Court named two special masters – Bernard Grofman (a political scientist at the University of California at Irvine) and Sean Trende (a senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics) – to draw new maps for the state’s Congressional, House of Delegates and Virginia Senate districts, after the state’s appointed redistricting commission was unable to do so itself earlier this year. Democrats had nominated Grofman for the role, while Republicans selected Trende.
Now, the court must decide whether to adopt the proposals as they are or alter them before doing so.
Analysis suggests Democratic advantage in proposed Henrico Senate seats, relative toss-up in House seats
The plans created by Grofman and Trende would move two current Henrico delegates – Democrats Schuyler VanValkenburg (72nd District) and Lamont Bagby (74th District) – into the 80th District together. Democrat Rodney Willett, who currently represents the 73rd District, would be the only incumbent in the newly shaped 58th District.
Current Delegates John McGuire (R-56th), Dawn Adams (D-68th) and Delores McQuinn (D-70th) would be districted out of Henrico altogether under the proposed House map.
In the Senate, current 12th District member Siobhan Dunnavant would be the only incumbent in the newly shaped 16th District, while current 9th District member Jennifer McClellan would be the only one in the 14th District. No incumbent lives within the boundaries of the proposed 13th District, which would include much of Eastern Henrico, as well as a number of other localities.
An analysis by the Virginia Public Access Project based upon voting in the 2016 presidential election suggests that new House districts 80 and 81 would be heavily Democratic, District 59 would be heavily Republican, and districts 57 and 58 would be toss-ups.
The same analysis views all three newly proposed Senate districts involving Henrico as leaning Democratic – the 13th and 14th heavily so, the 16th moderately so.
The Supreme Court will accept written comments about the maps from the public at Redistricting@vacourts.gov through Dec. 20 at 1 p.m. and on each of the interactive maps (linked below). The court also will host two virtual public hearings (Dec. 15 and 17, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.) to receive comments; anyone who wants to speak must email their name, email address and the area of the state in which they live and their desired speaking date, to Redistricting@vacourts.gov.
Proposed House districts
The target population for each state House district is just more than 86,000 people, and each of the five newly proposed districts involving Henrico would be within 2% of that amount.
(Click here to view an interactive map of the newly proposed House of Delegates districts)
The new 57th District largely would include the portion of Henrico’s Far West End that’s currently the easternmost part of the 56th District but also would add to it by shifting slightly eastward. Its Henrico boundary line would run south from the Hanover County line along Staples Mill Road to the Cross Ridge community, then head south to West Broad Street, then west to Short Pump Park, then generally south along a point to the east of John Rolfe Parkway/Stony Run, then west along Ridgefield Parkway, then generally south along Cambridge Drive to the Goochland line.
The district also would include the eastern third of Goochland County. It would be about 62% white, 21% Asian, 8% Black and 5% Hispanic.
The new 58th District would be wholly contained within Henrico’s West End, generally following the Tuckahoe District’s boundaries. It would contain everything east of the new 57th District, north of the James River, south of West Broad Street and east of the Richmond city line – streamlining a region that’s currently split between the 68th, 72nd and 73rd districts.
The district would be about 69% white, 10% Black, 9% Asian and 8% Hispanic.
The new 59th District would include the western half of Hanover County, most of Louisa County and a small section of Glen Allen (generally south of the Hanover County line and west of I-95, then north of a meandering line along portions of Hungary Road, Mountain Road, Indale Road and Parham Road).
The new 80th District would encompass much of the land that is currently within the 74th District but would shift those boundaries farther west. The 80th generally would include Henrico’s current Brookland and Fairfield districts (everything north of West Broad Street that isn’t included in the new 57th, and all land east to the a border running along Creighton Road to its intersection with North Laburnum Avenue, then along the latter road to its intersection with Nine Mile Road, then east along Nine Mile to A.P. Hill Avenue, then north to the Hanover County line).
The new 81st District would include all of Eastern Henrico east of the 80th District generally following the the current Varina District boundaries (an area that’s currently split between the 70th and 74th districts).
The existing districts that include Henrico – the 56th, 68th, 70th, 72nd, 73rd and 74th – each would shift out of the county.
The 56th would move farther west and south to cover the western portion of Goochland, as well as Fluvanna, Buckingham, Cumberland and Appomattox counties and the northeast corner of Prince Edward County.
The 68th would move out of the Metro Richmond region entirely, toward the Northern Neck, to encompass Essex, Middlesex, King and Queen, King William, Gloucester and Mathews counties.
The 70th would move east to encompass part of Newport News.
The 72nd would move south of the river and include Nottoway and Powhatan counties, as well as a portion of western Chesterfield County.
The 73rd would slide south of the river and encompass a large section of southern and western Chesterfield County.
The 74th also would move south to include a large portion of Chesterfield and Colonial Heights.
A VPAP analysis, based upon voting in the 2017 Virginia attorney general's race, concluded that the newly proposed House districts would give Democrats two more likely seats when compared with the current districts (49 to 47), while Republicans would continue to have 41 seats firmly or moderately in their grasp. Ten new districts would be toss-ups, compared with 12 that VPAP views that way currently.
Proposed Senate districts
Under the proposed Senate map, Henrico would be divided into three parts geographically – west, east and north.
The target population for each of the state’s 40 Senate districts is 215,785, and the three proposed districts that would include portions of Henrico each would be within 1.6% of that total.
(Click here to view an interactive map of the newly proposed Virginia Senate districts)
The 13th District would include Eastern Henrico – generally the Varina District – in addition to Charles City, Prince George, Surry and Sussex counties, the eastern half of Dinwiddie County, and the cities Hopewell and Petersburg. The district would be nearly half Black, about 40% white and about 5% Hispanic.
The newly proposed 14th District would include most of Richmond, as well as northern Henrico (roughly from Lakeside on the west to Creighton Road on the east). It would be about 47% white, 40% Black and about 5% Hispanic.
The new 16th District would include only Henrico’s West End – generally land west of Parham Road and North Run to Staples Mill Road. It would be 61% white, 14% Black, 14% Asian and 7% Hispanic.
The VPAP analysis based on the 2017 attorney general's race concluded that there would be no significance difference in the political leanings of the 40 new Senate districts when compared with the current ones; 21 would lean strongly or moderately to Democrats (the same number that do currently, according to VPAP), while 15 would lean strongly or moderately to Republicans (also the same number that do currently). Four districts would be toss-ups – the same number VPAP views that way in the existing format.
