Henrico Schools' enrollment down about 1,500 students from last year

Preliminary enrollment totals indicate that Henrico County Public Schools has lost about 1,500 students from last year – perhaps due to a combination of parents removing students to homeschool them or enroll them in private school, coupled with others holding off on enrolling rising kindergartners.

As of Sept. 21, unofficial data reported 48,840 total students in the system – a decrease from the 50,406 who attended last year. The decline still is significant, though, and places Henrico closer to its 2010 total enrollment (48,431) than to that of recent years.

Most of the losses have occurred at the elementary school level, where overall enrollment is down by about 1,200 compared to projections.

The early numbers show that losses at that level are most noticeable at seven West End elementaries, whose combined enrollment as of preliminary data Sept. 21 was nearly 500 students below projections.

Enrollment at two West End elementary schools in particular – Nuckols Farm and Three Chopt – is down nearly 100 students apiece from their projected totals (Nuckols Farm was projected to have 654 students but actually has just 557, while Three Chopt was projected to have 274 but has just 176 instead).

A third school, Tuckahoe Elementary, saw its enrollment fall 73 students below projection, from 640 to 567.

All three schools draw primarily from upper-middle class and upper-class communities.

Three Chopt District School Board member Micky Ogburn, whose district includes Nuckols Farm and Three Chopt elementaries, told the Citizen Friday that the preliminary enrollment numbers for the school division were about what she had expected.

“There are some people who have moved, people who are homeschooling, people who have moved to private schools," she said.

Some families with children who have special needs opted for other learning forms because virtual learning wasn't a fit, she said, and she's heard from others who opted to hold their rising kindergartners back this year rather than start them in school virtually.

"I’m not surprised by that at all," she said.

Other elementary schools well below their projected enrollment totals include four more in the West End – Pinchbeck Elementary (64 students fewer than expected); Glen Allen Elementary (60 fewer); Springfield Park (53 fewer); and Skipwith Elementary (47 fewer).

Others include Greenwood Elementary (45 fewer); and three that serve large pockets of middle class and lower-income communities:
• Seven Pines Elementary (44 fewer);
• Lakeside Elementary (44 fewer);
• Harvie (43 fewer).

On the other end of the spectrum is Ashe Elementary, whose enrollment is significantly higher – by 91 students – than projected.

The enrollment data shows Holladay (114% of capacity), Rivers Edge (111%), Colonial Trail (103%) and Fair Oaks (102%) as the only four elementary schools over capacity. However, all but Fair Oaks still are below their projected enrollments for the year, and Fair Oaks is just one student over.

According to the data, 26 students who were enrolled at Colonial Trail as of Sept. 14 were no longer enrolled as of Sept. 21. That was the second-largest enrollment decline during that one-week period of any school in Henrico, trailing only Highland Springs High School, which saw 36 students withdraw during the same time frame.

Other schools with 10 or more student withdrawals during that week included:

• Fairfield Middle (18);
• Elko Middle (15);
• Henrico High (15)
• Laburnum Elementary (14)
• Varina High (12);
• Highland Springs Elementary (10);

At the middle school level, Moody has seen the most dramatic decline from its projected total, down 157 students from the school system's estimate. Rolfe Middle (down 56) and Hungary Creek (down 50) were the only two other middle schools with at least a 50-student disparity between projected and actual enrollment totals.

No middle schools are over capacity.

At the high school level, Tucker (down by 66) and Hermitage (65) showed the greatest decline from projected to actual enrollment numbers. Deep Run High, however, has 58 more students than projected; it (102%), Freeman (104%) and Glen Allen (107%) all are over their capacities, though the latter two still have fewer students than projected.

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