HCPS health committee: region's COVID risk still considered 'substantial'

The Henrico Schools health committee Thursday provided better insight into the regional metrics and other considerations it’s using to evaluate a potential return to in-person school but avoided setting concrete benchmarks for a return.

During a Henrico School Board work session, HCPS Chief of Staff and committee member Beth Teigen told the board that the Central Virginia region – which includes the Henrico, Chesterfield, Richmond, Chickahominy, Southside, Piedmont and Crater health districts – is still considered a “substantial risk” region for COVID-19 community spread, scoring a 16 of a possible 24 on a Virginia Department of Health “burden” scale for the week ending Sept. 5.

The region had the same score two weeks earlier; the “high” burden range begins at 16 and continues to 24.

The scale is composed of four differently weighted measures from the localities:

• the number of new cases by day;

• the percent positivity (how well the area is testing and how many cases are being detected);

• the number of outbreaks;

• how affected the local healthcare system is.

When each of those measures hits a determined threshold, it adds points to the overall burden score. The committee is composed of Henrico Health District representatives, community experts, members and chair of the School Health Advisory Board and school system staffers.

In order to move down from a “substantial” to a “moderate” burden level – a score between 8 and 16 – the region would have to maintain a score in the moderate range for at least 14 days, Teigen said in response to a question from Tuckahoe District School Board member Marcie Shea. That would ensure stability and consistency in the direction the region is heading, Teigen said. Reacting too soon could create more fluctuation for families and staff, she said.

The HCPS return plan would allow a hybrid of in-person and virtual learning once the region is securely in the moderate level.

A full return to in-person school – which Henrico officials have dubbed reopening approach 4 – would align with a “low burden,” which ranges from less than 0 to less than 8. The division will continue to offer a fully virtual option for the entire school year for any students that want to continue learning that way.

The VDH also measures trends, a regional metric that is updated weekly. Trends are scored on a scale of 22, with a score equal to or above 15 considered “increasing.” The Central region’s current score is 12.0, which is considered “fluctuating.”

Thursday’s updated included Henrico-specific measures, and Teigen said the next update would include Richmond data, which she said are higher numbers than Henrico’s.

The Henrico case incidence rate per 100,000 and the percent positivity rate both are considered fluctuating because they have not met the 14-day threshold for a trend. Cases have decreased for 8 days, and percent positivity for 11, as of Sept. 5.

Outbreaks have been decreasing for 16 days, so they are considered to be trending downward.

“Each time there is an outbreak is when there are more than two people related to a case,” Teigen said in response to a question from Shea. The outbreak measure is binary — whether one occurred or not — and does not account for the size of outbreaks, Teigen said.

The health department cannot yet publicly provide the burden numbers, Teigen said, but the committee might have an update after it meets tomorrow.

At the School Board’s Aug. 27 work session, Assistant Henrico Health Director Melissa Viray said that the governmental approval process for making the metric and data public has been delayed and is pending.

Included in Thursday’s committee update were previously mentioned determinations — some short on specifics — that the committee will make before recommending a shift to the next reopening approach:

• That the necessary personal protective equipment is available to ensure the health and safety of staff and students;

• That the supply chain can sustain a four-week supply of PPE in schools;

• Whether staff members affirm that the HCPS Health Plan and risk-mitigation strategies are playing out effectively in HCPS classrooms;

• How a given recommendation will affect daily attendance rates.

Board member Alicia Atkins, who represents the Varina District, recommended that the committee updates include information about PPE and training that staff members receive on safety measures inside buildings.

“What this gives us is the data perspective from a health lens,” she said. “What this does not give us is preventative.” Staff members need to feel comfortable that masks will be available, she said.

The health committee meets every two weeks, will provide an update to the board at each meeting and will make a recommendation for the second nine weeks of school at the board’s Oct. 22 meeting.