ELECTION DAY: Ongoing updates
Table of Contents
Editor's note: The Henrico Citizen will be monitoring Election Day events and posting updates throughout the day here. Check back frequently.
UPDATE: 8:37 P.M. – The returns we are seeing announced now account for only about 20%-35% of registered voters in Henrico – the rest voted absentee. And we don't know who voted today and who voted early, so projections in the 7th District are difficult.In a general sense, many pundits believe Democratic voters voted early at much higher rates than their Republican counterparts, meaning Election Day precinct results may skew more toward Republican candidates.We're expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 190,000 total votes cast in Henrico County. Fifty-nine of the 66 Henrico precincts in the 7th Congressional District are now reporting, and in Henrico alone, Freitas leads Spanberger by a narrow margin of about 4.5%. Overall, he leads 62%-38%. That will change significantly once absentee numbers post.Two years ago, Spanberger won Henrico by about 20,000 votes and Chesterfield by almost 11,000. She's down about 9,000 votes total in the two counties so far and 32,000 votes overall districtwide. Expect those absentee votes to swing heavily for her. Will it be enough? Stay tuned.For some perspective, so far among Election Day votes counted statewide, Trump leads Biden by some 200,000 votes with 54% or so of votes counted. The AP already called the state for Biden, which gives a sense of how many Democratic votes are expected in absentee results.Two years ago, about 107,000 votes were cast in Henrico in the Seventh District race. With all but 3 Henrico precincts in the district now reporting, we have a total of about 54,000 votes reported so far tonight. Expect at least another 65,000+ or so to come.Also worth noting: Chesterfield voters cast 111,000 votes in the Seventh District race two years ago. So far tonight, we've heard from only about 37,000 of them. Fair to assume that we may have as many as 130,000 more votes to be reported just between Henrico and Chesterfield.
– Tom Lappas
UPDATE: 5:06 P.M. – The Henrico Registrar's Office has compiled snapshots of voting at 20 Henrico precincts – 4 in each of the county's 5 magisterial districts – and the average turnout among them so far today is 26%, about in line with the 20%-35% that was expected.The lowest in-person turnout among those 20 has been at the Montrose precinct in Varina (14%), while the highest has been at the Elko precinct (50%). Montrose is a heavily Democratic precinct – it went to Clinton by about 8:1 four years ago.The Elko precinct, conversely, leans Republican and went for Trump more than 4:1 four years ago. Those very small samples could suggest what some analysts have projected – that more Democratic voters voted early, while more Republican voters are voting in person today.Among the 20 precincts sampled, total average turnout was 12% as of 9 a.m., 20% as of noon and 26% as of 4 p.m., suggesting (not surprisingly) a heavier morning turnout and relatively steady flow since. The evening push is now underway.
UPDATE: 9:05 A.M. – It could be more difficult to project the results of individual precincts – and subsequently overall localities – in Henrico and Virginia this year, because so many people have voted absentee. The state's election software, VERIS, does not have the ability to parse our absentee voters by their individual home precincts, Henrico Registrar Mark Coakley told the Citizen, and instead it categorizes all of them together as one group (or, in Henrico's case this year, two groups – one for the Fourth Congressional District and one for the Seventh). That means that there will be no way to know which precincts Henrico’s 116,000 or so early voters represent. The county has about 231,000 registered voters, and nearly 85% of them are expected to vote in this election. As a result, today's total in-person turnout might only reach 80,000, so many precincts will show only between 20-35% voter turnout on average – even though a much higher percentage of their voters have cast ballots. In most election years, the number of absentee voters is small and doesn't impact the overall results; four years ago, for example, about 17,000 Henricoans voted absentee. But this year, with such a large number of absentee voters, historical precinct data may provide few hints today for election analysts. Did mostly Democratic voters cast early ballots? Mostly Republicans? An equal mix? Determining that will be impossible, so voters may need to wait until all ballots have been counted and reported to know outcomes for sure.While this change isn't expected to impact things at the presidential level in Henrico or Virginia (with both expected to be firmly in Democrat Joe Biden's camp), it could factor into the Spanberger-Freitas race in Virginia's Seventh Congressional District, which is expected to be an extremely close race. The good news: Henrico officials began processing absentee votes and expect to have them all reported today.In a larger sense, though, the significant shift to absentee voting means that substantial amounts of precinct-by-precinct voting data – information that can help show trends at a hyperlocal level and help explain the mindset of individual pockets of voters – will be lost.
UPDATE: 8:41 A.M. –Voters at Glen Allen High School are finding almost no wait time as they arrive. Poll workers told the Citizen that traffic has been consistent but not busy so far.
UPDATE: 8:25 A.M. – Republican candidate Nick Freitas (pictured), who is facing Spanberger in the Seventh District race, is greeting voters at Johnson Elementary in the Near West End, where three women who said they were voting for the first time asked a member of his staff to snap a picture of them that they could send to their sister.
UPDATE: 8:07 A.M. – Democrat Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger greeted children at J.R. Tucker High School this morning as a line of voters waited to cast ballots. Spanberger is locked in a tight race with Republican Nick Freitas in the Seventh Congressional District. Spanberger was joined by Henrico Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor and Henrico Delegate Rodney Willett during the stop at her alma mater. She chatted with the children above about her job, after they told her they'd seen her YouTube advertisements.
