COVID cases and vaccinations surging in Henrico

Henrico reported 161 new COVID-19 cases Thursday – its highest single-day total in more than a six and a half months, since it witnessed 196 Feb. 6. The county is now averaging 114 new daily cases during the past seven days, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

Twenty-two new hospitalizations also were reported among Henrico residents, but a Richmond and Henrico Health Districts official told the Citizen that while the region is seeing an increase in hospitalizations, most of those reported Thursday actually were data corrections reflecting hospitalizations from earlier this year.

For the first time in three days, there were no new deaths attributed to the virus in Henrico, according to the VDH.

Henrico’s seven-day PCR testing encounter positivity percentage of 10.3% (as of Aug. 22) is the highest that metric has been since it reached 10.4% Feb. 1 and is slightly higher than the state average of 9.9%. The county’s rapid testing encounter positivity percentage of 11.4% is more than 2% higher than the state average.

Vaccinations picking up
Nearly 1,100 Henricoans have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine in the past three days, data shows, and just more than 1,000 became fully vaccinated during that time – a significant jump from the three previous days, when just about 260 received a first dose and 250 became fully vaccinated.

The spread of the delta variant likely is causing some people who hadn’t yet gotten vaccinated to do so now, according to Richmond and Henrico Health Districts statistician Kyle Wending.

“I imagine that’s influencing some borderline people to make the plunge,” he told the Citizen. “The data suggests that that was a key inflection point [at which vaccinations began to increase again earlier this summer] and continues to be.”

Among eligible Henrico residents, Asians and Pacific Islanders in Henrico are the most vaccinated race or ethnicity (82%). Next are Latinos (about 77%), whose vaccination totals have been on the steepest incline of any race since late April, when only about 40% of their eligible population had gotten the vaccine.

About 66% of eligible whites in Henrico have been vaccinated and only about 53% of eligible Black people have been.

Correlation between low vaccination rates and high case incidence

Recent COVID case counts show a correlation between the groups that have and haven’t achieved high levels of vaccination.

The least-vaccinated group – Black people – also are the only racial group in the county whose current infection rate is higher than its population percentage. In the four weeks from July 26 to Aug. 22, they accounted for nearly half of all COVID cases in Henrico, even though they comprise only about 31% of the county’s population.

Asians, by contrast, account for about 9.4% of the county’s population but only about 2% of cases during that same timeframe. White people (53.2% of the population) accounted for just more than 38% of cases.

Data from the RHHD as of Aug. 16 showed that the most vaccinated Census tracts in Henrico all were in the West End – led by tract 2001.29 in the Twin Hickory area at nearly 87% – and all but 3 of the 13 Census tracts with the lowest vaccination rates were in Eastern or Northern Henrico.

The only tract remaining in Henrico with lower than a 40% vaccination rate among eligible residents was tract 2004.12, which generally encompasses a number of apartment and townhouse communities west of the Kroger Marketplace shopping center at Staples Mill and Parham roads and east of the Henrico Police headquarters at Parham and Shrader roads.

The tract is home to about 2,350 people, more than 15% of whom live in poverty. Its demographic make-up is about 39% Black, 28% Latino and 27% white, with an average per-capita income of just $21,000. Almost 30% of residents are foreign-born.

That tract and another farther east on Staples Mill (2004.10) that has a vaccination rate of less than 51% are among the more socially vulnerable in the county. The latter is home to about 5,700 people, more than 31% of whom are foreign-born and more than 24% of whom live in poverty.

Two tracts with fewer than 42% of eligible residents vaccinated are:

• 2008.05, which includes the Richmond Raceway complex and St. Paul Apartments and is home to about 3,700 people – about 87% of whom are Black and more than 41% of whom are living in poverty.
• 2012.02, which includes a large portion of Highland Springs and is home to nearly 6,200 people – about 78% of whom are Black and about 18% of whom are living in poverty.

Three other tracts near the raceway and five others in the general vicinity of Richmond International Airport, Highland Springs and Sandston have vaccination rates of less than 51%, according to RRHD data.

So too does one other tract in the Far West End (2001.23), which is home to about 3,800 people west of Gayton Road, south of Ridgefield Parkway and adjacent to the Goochland County line. That tract is 56% white, 16% Black and 16% Hispanic, and nearly 15% of residents live in poverty.