Avula: Virginia's vaccine distribution levels better than reported, but improvement still needed

Virginia’s apparent sluggish roll-out of the two COVID-19 vaccines may actually not be quite as bad as it appears, Henrico Health Director Danny Avula told reporters during a press briefing at Richmond Raceway Thursday.

Avula, tapped by Gov. Ralph Northam two weeks ago to lead the state’s vaccination process, said that one reason the state ranks 49th out of 50 in the percentage of doses administered (at 36%, it’s ahead of only Alabama) is because some 90,000 doses that actually have been used haven’t yet been entered in the state’s tracking system.

If those were reflected in the system, Virginia actually would rank 35th nationally at 45%, according to an analysis of current national data by the Citizen.

Of the 962,900 doses Virginia has received, about 343,000 officially have been administered according to the state’s data as of Jan. 20. Thursday, in addition to his explanation for the doses that have been administered but not yet recorded, Avula accounted for the other doses thusly:

• 105,000 first doses were distributed this week and anticipated to be administered this week;

• 61,000 second doses were distributed this week and anticipated to be administered this week;

• 226,000 doses have been distributed to CVS and Walgreens as part of the federal pharmacy partnership program for use at long-term care facilities but haven’t yet been administered because of delays within the process (in some cases because those facilities are experiencing active outbreaks of COVID and have had to delay inoculation events for several weeks);

• a “big chunk” of other doses either are being redistributed or are being held by groups that received them. In the latter cases, Avula said, organizations were hesitant to give first doses because they felt unsure about whether second doses would be available in a month, so they held a number of doses in reserve to use as second doses later if necessary.

As of Jan. 20, Virginia ranked 39th among 50 states in the percentage of residents who had received at least one dose of vaccine (3.6%), according to the Centers for Disease Control.

Avula indicated that he and other state health officials are working with CVS and Walgreens to help speed the vaccination process involving the doses they have received.

At the raceway Thursday, Henrico officials were in the midst of the second day of mass vaccination efforts for public safety and education employees of the county, Hanover, Richmond and Goochland. By 8 p.m. Friday, they expect to have provided the first dose of the Modern vaccine to 4,000 such employees.

“As a public health doc, it’s a little bit of a rush to be in this place,” Avula said, smiling with exuberance. “This is what, as public health responders, we live for.”

Northam, who also spoke at Thursday’s press briefing, reiterated his desire to see Virginia vaccinate 50,000 people a day or more as soon as possible. The state is currently vaccinating about 20,000 daily, he said, closing in on his first goal of 25,000 a day.

“We have been in a long, dark tunnel for now 10-plus months, so this vaccination is literally the light and the hope at the end of that tunnel,” he said.

But, Virginia received only 105,000 new first doses this week and will receive the same number again next week, Avula said, making it impossible to average the number of vaccinations officials would like. The doses are being allocated to localities proportionately to their populations, Avula said.

"We don't have the supply that we need," Avula said, referring to the state.

Avula and Northam both indicated that the state intends to vaccinate all Virginians by mid- to late-summer, though it was unclear if they were including children among that group. No vaccine yet has been authorized for use in children younger than 16, and one isn’t expected to earn such approval until later this summer.

Virginia has about 8.6 million citizens, and an estimated 1.8 million are younger than 16. In order to fully vaccinate the 6.8 million older than that (with two shots apiece), it would take 272 straight days – or about nine months – of 50,000 shots daily.

In order to get to the 75% vaccination levels that officials consider necessary for “herd immunity,” it would take about 204 days – nearly seven months – of 50,000 vaccinations daily.