Avula: Slight increase in COVID-19 cases so far this month not unexpected

Twenty-three new cases of COVID-19 were reported in Henrico County today, bringing the county’s total to nearly 3,000.

Recently this month – Virginia’s first in Phase 3, which allows larger gatherings and more businesses to be open – the county has seen a slight increase in the confirmed number of cases announced daily, but nothing that surprises Henrico Health Director Danny Avula.

Avula, speaking yesterday to a virtual meeting of Innsbrook business people, said that he had anticipated an uptick in cases once Phase 3 took effect but that he’s encouraged so far by the relative lack of significant numbers of hospitalizations related to the virus. A total of 26 new hospitalizations have been reported this month in Henrico.

“I fully expected that we would see a small bump in cases about a week after [Phase 3 began],” Avula said. “What will be interesting is what will happen the next couple of weeks. Do we see a little bump. . . or do we see sustained increases in rates? If it’s the latter, I would not be surprised if the governor made a more unilateral decision about schools in the commonwealth.”

For now, Gov. Ralph Northam and state officials are allowing individual school divisions to set their own plans for returning to school.

The Virginia Department of Health has reported 34 new virus-related deaths in Henrico this month, but it appears that a majority of those are from weeks or even months ago and were added to the count only after examination of death records by state health officials. The Citizen confirmed that the first 11 deaths announced this month were the result of such an analysis and is awaiting word on the others.

Overall, Henrico’s 7-day positivity percentage for new cases dropped today to 5.9% – nearly 2 full percentage points lower than the state’s average of 7.6%.