Amid Omicron’s blazing spread, Henrico’s COVID-19 numbers spike to 10-month high

Omicron is here, and the numbers prove it in Henrico.

The new variant of COVID-19 – which is now estimated to be responsible for about three-quarters of all new cases in the United States – likely contributed Tuesday to Henrico’s highest single-day total of new cases (183) in more than 10 months. It was the most new cases reported in the county since 196 were reported Feb. 6, according to Virginia Department of Health data.

Local and national health officials are worried that the timing of Omicron’s arrival – just days before the Christmas and New Year’s holidays and associated large-group gatherings – could create infection levels previously unseen during the pandemic.

Omicron is significantly more transmissible than earlier variants of the virus – it accounted for only about 12% of all cases in the U.S. just one week ago – but its severity is not yet fully understood. Some early studies have suggested it may be weaker than earlier variants, but health officials aren’t yet prepared to draw that conclusion officially.

At the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, officials Monday warned that Omicron could cause the country’s infection levels to spike to levels that could overwhelm the healthcare system, even in the event most cases aren’t severe.

“Plausible scenarios include steep epidemic trajectories that would require expedient public health action to prevent severe impacts on the health of individuals and the healthcare system,” CDC officials wrote on the agency’s website, saying that “these scenarios may be realized as soon as January” if the variant is able to evade the immunity conferred by previous COVID infection or vaccination, as it appears to be doing in some cases.

“Upcoming holiday gatherings may further accelerate these trends,” CDC officials wrote.

Health officials are urging those who are not vaccinated to get their first doses as soon as possible to protect themselves and others – while also urging those who are eligible for a booster shot (anyone more than six months from the date of their second Pfizer or Moderna shot, or two months from the date of their Johnson & Johnson shot) to get one. Though Omicron may evade vaccine immunity enough to cause breakthrough infections, that protection in most cases still prevents serious outcomes, according to health officials.

Henrico’s seven-day positivity percentage among PCR testing encounters (9%) is slightly below the statewide average of 9.6%, but the county’s percentage among rapid testing encounters (10.5%) is higher than the statewide average of 9.2%. Both of Henrico’s figures are the county’s highest rates in about three months.

Vaccinations in the county have picked up in the past five days, according to the VDH data, which shows that people in several age groups have received their first dose of vaccine at higher rates than they did during the first 16 days of the month.

For example, the overall number of Henricoans 45 to 54 who had received at least one dose of vaccine grew by just 0.42% from Dec. 1 to 16 – but then grew by nearly that much (0.4%) during the next five days. The same was true in the 55-to-64 age group, whose one-dose total grew by 0.38% from Dec. 1 to 16 and by 0.34% during the next five days.

In the past five days, nearly 700 Henrico children between the ages of 5 and 11 have received their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine (the only one available to that age group), increasing to nearly 8,900 the number of children in that group who have done so. That’s more than 31% of that population in Henrico. This month, nearly 2,130 children in that range have received their first doses.

None of the other 10 age groups tracked by VDH have added more than 192 new first-dose recipients in that time, though health officials likely are encouraged by the fact that it was the 25-to-34 year-old age group that added that many. Younger people – who typically are less likely to suffer several effects from the virus – have been slower to get vaccinated than others.

Since the pandemic began, Henrico has witnessed only 20 days with more than 183 new cases, with most of those coming in the holiday aftermath in January. Its highest single-day total was Jan. 16, when 326 new cases were reported. The high case counts in January didn’t significantly spike Henrico’s average of virus-related hospitalizations, which remained generally in the range of 3 to 4 per day until peaking at about 11 in early March.

But the post-holiday spike early this year did produce the county’s most significant spike in virus-related deaths, which jumped form an average of about 1 to 2 per day in January to more than 16 per day in late February and early March.

Officials are hopeful those outcomes won't spike again as Omicron becomes the dominant strain.

Henrico has witnessed 22 virus-related hospitalizations so far in 21 days this month – up from a net total of just 7 in November (13 were reported that month but six were removed from the county’s total – possibly from that total or possibly from previous months’ totals – after data corrections).

The county reported 32 hospitalizations related to COVID in October.